Is the p-value the probability that the null hypothesis is true?
No. A p-value is conditional on the null hypothesis being true. It asks how unusual the observed test statistic would be under that assumption.
A better exam-safe phrasing is:
The p-value is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the calculated statistic, assuming H0 is true.So a p-value of 0.03 does not mean there is a 3 percent probability that H0 is true. It means the observed evidence would be unusual under H0. If alpha is 5 percent, the analyst rejects H0 because 0.03 <= 0.05.
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